With the Oscars coming up today, it seemed like the right time to give my Academy Award predictions for this year. I have excluded a few categories, including the documentary category, and the categories for shorts, since I have not seen many of these films, and did not feel I could make an accurate prediction. These predictions come not from what I feel should win, but from what I feel the Academy is going to pick, based a lot on the buzz I have read online from movie sites and movie critics.
Best Picture
Nominees: “>Amour”, “Argo”, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”, “Django Unchained”, “Les Misérables”, “Life of Pi”, “Lincoln”, “Silver Linings Playbook”, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Predicted Winner: “Argo”
I will start off with the most important category of all, that for Best Picture of the year. In recent years, the Best Picture award seemed a sure thing. For example, everyone knew that “The Artist” would win in 2011, and “The Kings Speech” the year before. But this year there is no film that seemed a definite winner. The top runner for some time was “Argo,” directed by Ben Affleck. The thing is, though, Ben Affleck was not even nominated for Best Director by the Academy. To not at least be nominated for Best Director if your movie wins Best Picture is almost unheard of, and only three films in history have achieved this. So, it seemed for a time that Best Picture would go to “Lincoln,” a close runner-up. Since the nominations though, “Argo” has won almost every major award across the board: at the Golden Globes, ; the Screen Actors Guild awards, the Producers Guild Awards, and at the British Academy Film Awards. And not only this, but there is the movie itself. “Argo” is a film that has everything. It has historical relevance, it has thrills, humor, and great acting and cinematography. And in the end, it is Hollywood that saves that day. How could the Academy not award this? So “Argo,” it seems, will win it all.
Best Director
Nominees: Michael Haneke, “Amour”, Benh Zeitlin, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”, Ang Lee, “Life of Pi”, David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook”, Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”
Predicted Winner: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
The real competition in this category would have been if Affleck was nominated. But since he was snubbed, it really comes down to just two candidates: Steven Spielberg for “Lincoln” or Ang Lee for “Life of Pi.” What is working against Spielberg is the fact that he has already won two Academy Awards in this category, but “Lincoln,” as a historical biopic, is the type that the Academy likes to award. Another possible mention is David O. Russell for “Silver Linings Playbook,” since the Academy seems to really love this movie. Zeitlin and Haneke, first-time nominees in this category, seem too new. So I’m going with Spielberg for this one.
Best Actor
Nominees: Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook”; Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”; Hugh Jackman, “Les Miserables”; Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master”; Denzel Washington, “Flight”
Predicted Winner:Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
This category, unlike the previous two, is mostly a sure thing. Daniel Day-Lewis has already won two Academy Awards: for “My Left Foot” and “There Will Be Blood.” So, he could make Academy Award history by winning a third award this year. And though this may seem far-fetched, for all who have seen the movie, there is no performance here more deserving. The only one who comes close is Bradley Cooper for “Silver Linings Playbook.” Daniel Day-Lewis has already won dozens of awards for his performance, and the Academy Award is just another to add to his collection.
Best Actress
Nominees: Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”; Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”; Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour”; Quvenzhané Wallis, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”; Naomi Watts, “The Impossible”
Predicted Winner: Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”
This category has got to be one of the most unusual that I have ever seen at the Academy Awards. You have actresses ranging from as young as Quvenzhané Wallis at 9 years old to Emmanelle Riva at 85. What it really comes down to, though, is a race between Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence. My prediction is Jennifer Lawrence, since, as I mentioned before, the Academy seems to really like this movie. And “Zero Dark Thirty” did not get as many nominations as expected. Even though Chastain was great in the film, it doesn’t seem enough to take home the award. Not only that, but Jennifer Lawrence has won multiple awards for her role, including the Golden Globe and the Screen Actors Guild award. Emmanuelle Riva may also have a slight chance for “Amour,” but this really seems like more of a long-shot.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Alan Arkin, “Argo”; Robert De Niro, “Silver Linings Playbook”; Phillip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”; Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”; Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained”;
Predicted Winner: Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained”
Just as in the previous category, the nominations here are also very unusual. For one, all of the nominees have already won an Academy Award in the past. And, really, all could potentially win here as well. Judging by previous award ceremonies, though, Christoph Waltz seems to have a slight edge. He has won the Golden Globe and also the BAFTA for his role as Dr. Schultz in the film. However, Tommy Lee Jones has also won the Screen Actors Guild award. But I’m sticking by Waltz.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Amy Adams, “The Master”; Sally Field, “Lincoln”; Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables”; Helen Hunt, “The Sessions”; Jacki Weaver, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Predicted Winner: Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables”
Now here, finally, is another award that seems to be a sure thing. Anne Hathaway gave an incredible performance as Fantine in this film. Just watch her “I Dreamed a Dream” sequence once, and the award is almost set in stone. The only other performance with a slight chance is probably Sally Field in “Lincoln.” But Field already has two Oscars, and though she was great as Mrs. Lincoln in the movie, there really is no comparison to Hathaway. Plus, Hathaway has already won several awards for her performance. So, not much of a surprise here.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Michael Haneke, “Amour”; Quentin Tarantino, “Django Unchained”; Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, John Gatins, “Flight”; “Moonrise Kingdom”; Mark Boal, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Predicted Winner: Quentin Tarantino, “Django Unchained”
For this category, it seems to be another tight race between candidates. Mark Boal, who has already won for “The Hurt Locker,” could potentially win for “Zero Dark Thirty” as well. As mentioned earlier, though, the Academy did not seem to like this film as much as expected. And “Django Unchained” has seemed to really seal the mark on Tarantino, who has also won in the past for “Pulp Fiction.” Say what you will about Tarantino’s films, he is a very talented writer. So he will likely win the Best Original Screenplay category here.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Chris Terrio, “Argo”; Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”; David Magee, “Life of Pi”; Tony Kushner, “Lincoln”; David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Predicted Winner: Chris Terio, “Argo”
It is usually the case that the film that wins Best Picture also wins Best Screenplay. In this case, that would be “Argo” once again. What seems to come closest here is Tony Kushner for “Lincoln.” The story of “Lincoln” is what seems to drive the film, and to keep the audience interested despite two and a half hours where nothing really happens. It is close, but still does not quite reach the level of “Argo,” which will likely take home the award.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: “Brave”, “Frankenweenie”, “ParaNorman”, “The Pirates! Band of Misfits”, “Wreck-it Ralph”
Predicted Winner: Frankenweenie
For Best Animated Feature, there is also no clear top-runner. Traditionally, this award has gone to the Disney/Pixar film of the year. From 2007-2010, they won every single year. Their latest film “Brave,” though, is not as obvious a winner as in the past. And Tim Burton’s “Frankenweenie” was surprisingly successful, both as a box office hit and with critics. So, after years of making movies, it seems that Tim Burton may finally be recognized. “Wreck-it Ralph” may also be a possible winner here, though my bet’s on “Frankenweenie.”
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: “Amour”, “Kon-Tiki”, “No”, “A Royal Affair”, “War Witch”
Predicted Winner: “Amour”
It is a rare thing for a Foreign Language film to be nominated for Best Picture. It has only happened a handful of times in the past, and has never won. But if a film is nominated for Best Picture, it is usually an indicator that it will win in the Foreign Language category, at the very least. And, in this case, “Amour” is our winner.
Best Original Score
Nominees: Dario Marianelli, “Anna Karenina”; Alexandre Desplat, “Argo”; Mychael Danna, “Life of Pi”; John Williams, “Lincoln”; Thomas Newman, “Skyfall”
Predicted Winner: Mychael Danna, “Life of Pi”
In “Life of Pi,” what really stood out in the film, other than the incredible visuals, was the background score. It really comes down to three competitors in this category: “Argo,” “Lincoln,” and “Life of Pi.” John Williams’ score for “Lincoln” was typical of his usual historical film, such as “Schindler’s List” or “War Horse.” Though it had a great theme, I feel that the Academy may not be as willing to award John Williams, since he has already won a multitude of awards in the past. And the soundtrack of “Argo” was not overall as impressive as “Life of Pi.” So “Life of Pi” for Best Original score.
Best Original Song
Nominees: J. Ralph, “Before My Time” from “Chasing Ice”; Walter Murphy and Seth MacFarlane, “Everybody Needs a Best Friend” from “Ted”; Mychael Danna and Bombay Jayashri, “Pi’s Lullaby” from “Life of Pi”; Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth, “Skyfall” from “Skyfall”; Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer, and Alain Boublil, “Suddenly” from “Les Miserables”
Predicted Winner: Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth, “Skyfall” from “Skyfall”
In this category, there is almost no competition. The opening sequence from “Skyfall,” with Adele’s voice in the background, is breathtaking. It takes the James Bond theme to a new level. The song has not only been popular for movie fans, but also a hit single for Adele. No other nominee can even really be considered. So Adele will have another trophy to add to her growing collection.
Best Sound Editing
Nominees: Erik Adahl and Ethan Van der Ryn, “Argo”; Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton, “Life of Pi”; Eugene Gearty and Phillip Stockton, “Life of Pi”; Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers, “Skyfall”; Paul N. J. Ottosson, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Predicted Winner: Eugene Gearty and Phillip Stockton, “Life of Pi”
Like “Hugo” last year, it is my prediction that “Life of Pi” will win many of the technical categories this year, which includes sound editing. With such scenes as the sinking of the ship at the beginning, or the thunderstorm that Pi barely survives, this award seems a sure thing. “Skyfall,” which also has some great sound in the action scenes, may come close, but does not quite pass “Life of Pi.”
Best Sound Mixing
Nominees: John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, and Jose Antonion Garcia, “Argo”; Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, and Simon Hayes, “Les Miserables”; Ron Bartlett, D. M. Hemphill, and Drew Kunin, “Life of Pi”; Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, and Ronald Judkins, “Lincoln”; Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, and Stuart Wilson, “Skyfall”
Predicted Winner: Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, and Simon Hayes, “Les Miserables”
The Best Sound Mixing usually goes to either a technical film, such as last year with “Hugo,” or to the biggest musical of the year, if there has been one. In this case, “Les Miserables” will win, as it is clearly the most popular musical film of the year. Say what you will about the rest of the film, the music of “Les Miserables” is a spectacular achievement.
Best Production Design
Nominees: Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer, “Anna Karenina”; Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent, and Simon Bright, “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”; Eve Stewart and Anna Lynch-Robinson, “Les Miserables”; David Gropman and Anna Pinnock, “Life of Pi”; Rick Carter and Jim Erickson, “Lincoln”
Predicted Winner: David Gropman and Anna Pinnock, “Life of Pi”
Though Best Production Design is not really classified as a technical category, it has often gone to a film that is visually impressive, such as with “Hugo” last year, “Avatar” in 2009, and “Pan’s Labyrinth” in 2006. When looking at the current nominees, “Life of Pi” seems to stand out once again. It is the most unique of the bunch, and also the most impressive.
Best Cinematography
Nominees: Seamus McGarvey, “Anna Karenina”; Robert Richardson, “Django Unchained”; Claudio Miranda, “Life of Pi”; Janusz Kaminski, “Lincoln”; Roger Deakins, “Skyfall”
Predicted Winner: Claudio Miranda, “Life of Pi”
And yet another for “Life of Pi.” This is one of only a few films where I felt that the 3D really seemed necessary. In “Skyfall,” the cinematography is also impressive. Though similar in some ways to your average James Bond film, “Skyfall” is uniquely shot in close-ups and wide spanning landscapes, providing a different feel to the film. “Life of Pi,” though, will probably take him the win.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, and Martin Samuel, “Hitchcock”; Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater, and Tami Lane, “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”; Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell, “Les Miserables”
Predicted Winner: Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell, “Les Miserables”
This category is a tough choice. Though “The Hobbit” has tougher makeup and hairstyling, mainly because it has to make humans look like non-humans, “Les Miserables” is overall a more critically acclaimed film. I would say that “The Hobbit” probably deserves to win here, but “Les Miserables” will probably take home the award.
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Jacqueline Durran, “Anna Karenina”; Paco Delgado, “Les Miserables”; Joanna Johnston, “Lincoln”; Eiko Ishioka, “Mirror Mirror”; Colleen Atwood, “Snow White and the Huntsman”
Predicted Winner: Paco Delgado, “Les Miserables”
“Les Miserables” seems to have the edge when it comes to recreating a slice of history. The costumes used throughout the film create the believable effect that we are back in the time of France in the early 1800’s (even though the actors all have English accents.) I have heard some acclaim about the costumes in “Anna Karenina” as well, but my bet is still on “Les Miserables.”
Best Film Editing
Nominees: William Goldenberg, “Argo”; Tim Squyres, “Life of Pi”; Michael Kahn, “Lincoln”; Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers, “Silver Linings Playbook”; Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Predicted Winner: William Goldenberg, “Argo”
The editing of “Argo” is one of the strongpoints of the film. They are able to create tension and anticipation during several scenes, in particular the final scenes, even though all we are seeing at first is people walking through an airport terminal. “Zero Dark Thirty” has a similar method, being a similar movie, but is overall not as enjoyable as “Argo.” And, since “Argo” will probably win Best Picture, it is fated to win Best Film Editing as well.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, and R. Christopher White, “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”; Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan de Boer, and Donald R. Elliott, “Life of Pi”; Janek Sirrs, Jeff White Guy Williams, and Dan Sudick, “The Avengers”; Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley, and Martin Hill, “Prometheus”; Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould, and Michael Dawson, “Snow White and the Huntsmen”
Predicted Winner: Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan de Boer, and Donald R. Elliott, “Life of Pi”
The winner of this category, like Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, or Best Original Song, is one where the winner is clear and obvious. The visual effects of “Life of Pi” are like nothing I have ever seen. Not since “Avatar” have I seen anything this impressive. To close out my predictions, “Life of Pi” will win an award that it rightfully deserves.
And this closes out my predictions for this year’s Academy Awards. Be sure to tune in tonight at 7 PM to see what happens. The biggest night of the year for movie fans!