Well it’s about that time again! I still can’t believe it’s already been a year since “The Shape of Water” won, a movie which, I unfortunately did not pick as the eventual winner. But hopefully I will finally pick the correct one this year for Best Picture, a category that is often the toughest to place and that has been an unsure thing for the last several years. I shall try my best!

Standard disclaimer: the below predicted winners aren’t necessarily who I would like to win, but which films I feel have the best chance of doing so. Though, I will likely provide my own critical opinions of the films I’ve seen as well. At any rate, let’s get started!

Best Picture

Nominees:

“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”
“Vice”

Predicted Winner: “Green Book”

As mentioned above, this is yet another year where the Best Picture could conceivably be several different films. The two that seem most likely, though, are either “Roma” or “Green Book,” yet there has been growing enthusiasm for “Black Panther” as well.

But here, I’m going with my gut. The film has its share of controversy; namely, that it’s very inaccurate to the real relationship at the heart of the film and in addition there are controversies surrounding both its director and screenwriter. Yet, “Green Book” is the type of film that might have struck the right chords with voters all the same, dealing with a heavy issue but in a feel-good way. And between this and the very long, drawn-out black-and-white “Roma,” which in addition will almost undoubtedly win the Best Foreign Language Film award anyway, I just see “Green Book” being a more likely pick. The one additional thing going against it is that director Peter Farrelly wasn’t nominated for Best Director. But that shouldn’t stop the Academy from selecting “Green Book,” as they have done it in recent years such as in 2012 for “Argo,” when director Ben Affleck wasn’t nominated.

So, while I think it’d be more interesting for something like “Black Panther” to win, or even a dark horse like “The Favourite,” I just have a feeling “Green Book” will ultimately take the biggest award of the night.

Best Director

Nominees:

Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Adam McKay, “Vice”

Predicted Winner: Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”

Relating back to “Roma,” this is a category that is much more of a sure thing for the film. “Roma” is very much Cuarón’s film, hearkening back to his early experiences growing up in Mexico. The film is also distinctive, filmed in black-and-white, and dealing with political issues of the time. Basically, it’s the type of movie that the Academy likes to recognize for the person behind the helm. And, remarkably, this would be Cuarón’s second Academy Award after also winning for “Gravity” back in 2013.

The self-proclaimed “Three Amigos,” which includes Cuarón, Guillermo del Toro, and Alejandro G. Iñárritu, have really been dominating in recent years, and this win would be the sixth win amongst the three over the last six years. Pretty astounding, I would say, but also very well-deserved. 

Best Actor

Nominees:

Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

Predicted Winner: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”

This is a category that I originally would’ve thought could be a tossup, between either Rami Malek, Bradley Cooper, or Christian Bale. But Malek has really been cleaning up house this awards season, having won the BAFTA, the Golden Globe, the SAG, and multiple others. And hey, I think he’s pretty good as Freddie Mercury, even if I wasn’t as enthusiastic as the film itself. It would honestly be a shock if Malek doesn’t take home the Academy Award, which would mean that he would be halfway on his way to an EGOT!

Best Actress

Nominees:

Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Predicted Winner: Glenn Close, “The Wife”

Now here’s another sure thing; really, I’d say all the acting awards are pretty much a lock at this point. Glenn Close, who has been nominated a whopping seven times including this one, has still never won. Yet, she will thankfully receive her first award for “The Wife.” Though the film has received a less-than-stellar reaction (I personally loved it), she is far and above the best thing about it. Her performance, which is understated and minimal, manages to strike quite a powerful impact, a quality about Close that has often stood out with her performances (that is, when she’s not trying to kill Michael Douglas). The Oscar would be very much deserved, performance alone, but it still will likely be seen as the capper for a truly remarkable career as a whole.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

Predicted Winner: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”

Mahershala Ali has really broke ground in the past few years with his acting career. After winning for “Moonlight” back in 2017, he has since become an icon on screen, both for films like “Green Book” and the recently released “Alita: Battle Angel,” in addition to television shows like “Luke Cage” and the about to conclude third season of “True Detective.”

But even people who are not the hugest fans of “Green Book” should recognize the wonderful performance at the center of it by Ali. He manages to bring sensitivity, vulnerability, and charm to a role that on paper is written a lot more thin. This win would make him one of the only recent actors to win Oscars so close to each other, which I believe was last done in 2012 with Christoph Waltz winning for Django Unchained and Inglorious Basterds before that. Ali is still just getting going, though. I can’t wait to see what he does next.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Predicted Winner: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Regina King is, unfortunately, likely the only sure win for the criminally under-nominated “If Beale Street Could Talk.” And yet what a performance it was! With relatively minimal screen time, King gives a searing performance of a mother looking out for her daughter and son-in-law. It’s a performance that has already been recognized by multiple other award shows, and I don’t see the Academy making any other choice. A shoutout to the dual performances of Stone and Weisz, though, who were both just delightful in “The Favourite,” and in any other year might have had more of a shot.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees:

“The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
“First Reformed,” Paul Schrader
“Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“Vice,” Adam McKay

Predicted Winner: “The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara

This is a toughie. “Green Book,” which I have winning Best Picture, should also have a good shot at winning Best Original Screenplay as well, as happened in 2015 with “Spotlight.” Yet, the award also sometimes goes to movies that truly epitomize the “Original” of the award’s name, which in this cast would mean that it goes to “The Favourite.” In recent years, this has been the case, such as last year with the win for “Get Out,” with the also-nominated “The Shape of Water” going on to win Best Picture. It serves as a way of celebrating a film, even if the top prize of Best Picture doesn’t ultimately go to it. I believe that it will happen again this year with “The Favourite,” though I’m admittedly far from certain.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:

“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen , Ethan Coen
“BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins
“A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

Predicted Winner: “BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee

Speaking of celebrating a film that likely won’t win Best Picture, here we have Spike Lee’s “BlacKkKlansman.” It’s a film that finally gave Spike Lee Academy Award recognition despite having worked in the medium for decades. For that reason, (and also because “BlacKkKlansman” is a pretty fantastic watch), it’s Spike’s most likely win for the night. I do love that “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” was nominated here, in addition to films like “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” and “Beale Street,” yet I see “BlacKkKlansman” as the eventual winner.

Best Animated Feature

Nominees:

Animated Feature:

“Incredibles 2”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mirai”
“Ralph Breaks the Internet”
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”

Predicted Winner: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”

Here we have it: the first non-Disney animated film since I can’t remember that will likely win the award for Best Animated Feature. They’ve been dominating this category since 2011, either through Walt Disney Studios or Pixar. Yet, finally, it looks like “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” will topple them here.

While I did enjoy both “Incredibles 2” and “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” “Spider-Verse” is a film that truly stretches the capacity of the medium, fully resembling a comic book come to life. For any fans of the comics, or of superhero movies in general, I highly recommend you let its titular character swing its way onto your television screens. At any rate, this award is almost a sure thing.

Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees:

“Capernaum” (Lebanon)
“Cold War” (Poland)
“Never Look Away” (Germany)
“Roma” (Mexico)
“Shoplifters” (Japan)

Predicted Winner: “Roma” (Mexico)

The win for “Roma” here is likely the reason that the film won’t also win Best Picture. Not that it doesn’t deserve both, but the Academy might feel that awarding it here, and also in Best Director for Cuarón, is enough. Then again, what could also happen here is that “Cold War” wins for Best Foreign Language Film, if voters feel that “Roma” will be more fittingly awarded in Best Picture. Hey who knows at this point – this award season stuff is confusing sometimes!

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees:

“Free Solo,” Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” RaMell Ross
“Minding the Gap,” Bing Liu
“Of Fathers and Sons,” Talal Derki
“RBG,” Betsy West, Julie Cohen

Predicted Winner: “Free Solo,” Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi

Ashamedly, I still have yet to see any of the nominated films, though I’m still upset that “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” wasn’t nominated. But “Free Solo” seems to have the most momentum here, with a slight chance that “RBG” comes in and wins instead. But I’m betting on “Free Solo.”

Best Cinematography

Nominees:

“Cold War,” Lukasz Zal
“The Favourite,” Robbie Ryan
“Never Look Away,” Caleb Deschanel
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“A Star Is Born,” Matthew Libatique

Predicted Winner: “Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón

“Roma” “Roma” “Roma.” This would be another win for Cuarón, who served as his own Director of Photography for the film. Boy would it be well deserved, though, as “Roma” is a stunning visual achievement above all. This category as a whole is filled with some excellent picks (and I’m glad we get to actually see the award being presented, thanks Academy!) “Roma” is almost definitely the winner, at any rate.

Best Film Editing

Nominees:

“BlacKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Ottman
“Green Book,” Patrick J. Don Vito
“The Favourite,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
“Vice,” Hank Corwin

Predicted Winner: “Vice,” Hank Corwin

This category seems to be between two films: “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “Vice.” “Bohemian Rhapsody” is a potential winner due to the fact that the film had to be pieced together through the work of two different directors, while “Vice” is a potential due to its unconventional method of splicing together scenes and images throughout in a somewhat chaotic way. And it’s sometimes the films with the most editing that win here. So while “Bohemian” could swoop in, I’m going with “Vice.”

Best Production Design

Nominees:

“Black Panther,” Hannah Beachler
“First Man,” Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
“The Favourite,” Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
“Mary Poppins Returns,” John Myhre, Gordon Sim
“Roma,” Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez

Predicted Winner: “The Favourite”

This could really go to any of these, but I think it’s mostly between either “Black Panther” or “The Favourite.” If “Black Panther” starts to pick up some awards, then the enthusiasm for the film could help it to win here. After all, the robust, expansive world of Wakanda has already become iconic, even just within a year. But, often, the award goes to period films, so in that case I’m picking “The Favourite” for the win.

Best Costume Design

Nominees:

“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Mary Zophres
“Black Panther,” Ruth E. Carter
“The Favourite,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Queen of Scots,” Alexandra Byrne

Predicted Winner: ““Black Panther”

Once again, an award that is between either “Black Panther” or “The Favourite.” While one would think that a period drama would also win for the lavish dresses that the performers wear, I believe that the creativity and uniqueness of the Wakanda costumes in “Black Panther” will help it here. It’s what happened in 2015 with “Mad Max: Fury Road.” As with the previous category, though, this one is a coin toss.

Best Original Score

Nominees:

“BlacKkKlansman,” Terence Blanchard
“Black Panther,” Ludwig Goransson
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell
“Isle of Dogs,” Alexandre Desplat
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

Predicted Winner: “If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell

This one seems to be between three films: “If Beale Street Could Talk,” “Black Panther,” and “BlacKkKlansman.” Once again, if “Black Panther” has the momentum going into the night, it could definitely pull off a win here. But the “Beale Street” score is just so delicate and beautiful, and since that film, as mentioned, has been under-appreciated, I believe it’ll at least get a win here for its composer Nicholas Britell. “BlacKkKlansman” could also sneak in here, but I think one of the other two is more likely.

One more thing: where the heck is Justin Hurwitz for “First Man?” That’s my personal favorite score of the year, and it’s a bummer that it wasn’t nominated.

Best Original Song

Nominees: 

“All The Stars” from “Black Panther” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
“I’ll Fight” from “RBG” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

Predicted Winner: “Shallow” from “A Star Is Born” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice

If you hear anything but “Shallow” announced as the winner in this category, I’ll honestly be shocked. “A Star is Born” as a whole seems to have lost its momentum during award season, as it was a favorite early on, yet the enthusiasm for “Shallow” is still booming. How can you not get chills when Lady Gaga bursts out with that chorus for the first time? Just a marvelous song, that deserves an Oscar for all involved.

Best Visual Effects

Nominees:

“Avengers: Infinity War”
“Christopher Robin”
“First Man”
“Ready Player One”
“Solo: A Star Wars Story”

Predicted Winner: “First Man”

“Avengers: Infinity War” or “First Man?” That is the question here. Does the Academy prefer a CGI-filled landscape with a giant purple man wearing a magical illuminated glove? Or a venture of the first man to step on the moon? It’s a tossup, to be honest, but that otherworldly vision of the silent, crater-filled world of the moon should do it for them.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Nominees:

“Border”
“Mary Queen of Scots”
“Vice”

Predicted Winner: “Vice”’

The work spent making Christian Bale look like Dick Cheney is astounding, though much of that is also the weight put on by ever-the-method-actor Bale himself. Either way, it should be enough for the makeup artists of “Vice” to win the award.

Best Sound Mixing

Nominees:

“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“First Man”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”

Predicted Winner: “Bohemian Rhapsody”

This category tends to go to musicals, or to films where sound is of utmost importance to the film itself. For bringing Freddie Mercury’s vocals to life, and for that final recreation of the Live Aid performance, “Bohemian Rhapsody” is more than a worthy winner.

Best Sound Editing

Nominees:

“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“First Man”
“A Quiet Place”
“Roma”

Predicted Winner: “First Man”

Both for creating the thunderous space shuttle scenes and for the moon sequence itself, “First Moon” should definitely get an edge here. Technically, the film is a marvel of light and sound, even if the characters themselves feel somewhat vacuous in comparison. But here, the film flourishes.

Best Live Action Short Film

Nominees:

“Detainment,” Vincent Lambe
“Fauve,” Jeremy Comte
“Marguerite,” Marianne Farley
“Mother,” Rodrigo Sorogoyen
“Skin,” Guy Nattiv

Predicted Winner: “Marguerite,” Marianne Farley

This category, and the ones to follow, are admittedly my biggest gaps when it comes to the Academy Awards, and I typically just go with consensus predictions. Here, I’ll have to go with “Marguerite,” a film set in France about an unlikely friendship.

Best Animated Short Film

Nominees:

“Animal Behaviour,” Alison Snowden, David Fine
“Bao,” Domee Shi
“Late Afternoon,” Louise Bagnall
“One Small Step,” Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
“Weekends,” Trevor Jimenez

Predicted Winner: “Bao,” Domee Shi

Disney tends to win this category quite a bit, and “Bao” is quite a good one, a wonderful animated story about the joys and grief that come with parenting. It’s just touching enough to seal a win here.

Best Documentary – Short Subject

Nominees:

“Black Sheep,” Ed Perkins
“End Game,” Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
“Lifeboat,” Skye Fitzgerald
“A Night at the Garden,” Marshall Curry
“Period. End of Sentence.,” Rayka Zehtabchi

Predicted Winner: “Black Sheep,” Ed Perkins

I’m far from certain about this one, given my lack of familiarity with the nominees. But “Black Sheep,” about a Nigerian who moves to a racist London town, seems to have some energy behind it, so it’s my pick for the night.

So that about sums up my predictions for this year’s Academy Awards. Though there have been multiple controversies surrounding the ceremony this year, even moreso than any past year that I can remember, I hope it’ll at least be a decent show. Maybe we’ll even get some pleasant surprises along the way. At any rate, be sure to tune it at 8:00PM EST to find out!