It’s that time of year again: Oscar season! As seems to be typical the last couple years, I’m admittedly not as up to date with predictions as I normally would be. Thankfully, though, I have seen a majority of the nominees, including all the Best Picture contenders, of which there is a wide range of genres and types of movies. And while it does look like there is some expectations for at least a few of the categories, there is still a lot of uncertainty as well.
For my predictions this year, which are also being done at the last minute due to life getting in the way, I’ve decided to just go with the majority consensus in many of the categories. This is what I typically do anyways, but I sometimes unfortunately let my own personal biases get in the way. At any rate, these are the picks for the 2022 Oscar awards.
Best Picture
“Belfast”
“CODA”
“Don’t Look Up”
“Drive My Car”
“Dune”
“King Richard”
“Licorice Pizza”
“Nightmare Alley”
“The Power of the Dog”
“West Side Story”
Predicted Winner: “CODA”
Starting off with the best category is Best Picture, which this year has switched off between a couple main contenders. For awhile, it seemed that Jane Campion‘s “The Power of the Dog” had this in the bag, but then the momentum seemed to be switching more in recent weeks to “CODA.” There was some slight controversy to “The Power of the Dog,” which I don’t really need to get into right now, but it might hurt it in the long run. And it’s hard to find people who don’t generally enjoy the feel-good “CODA.” So while it’s a welcome surprise that it’s gotten this far, I don’t think it would be a shock if “CODA” won the night’s biggest award.
Best Director
Nominees:
Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, “Drive My Car”
Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”
Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”
Steven Spielberg , “West Side Story”
Predicted Winner: Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”
Jane Campion‘s win here is a pretty sure thing. The Academy has been known to alter the winning film in the Best Picture and Director category, and is likely to do that here to honor Campion‘s work behind “The Power of the Dog.” She has already won multiple trophies for the film, and though I’m sure she would have wanted Best Picture to go along with it, getting a Best Director Oscar is not so bad methinks.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”
Andrew Garfield (“Tick, Tick … Boom!”)
Will Smith, “King Richard”
Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
Predicted Winner: Will Smith, “King Richard”
This is one of those acting awards that seemed to be almost a sure thing for months, before some uncertainty creeped in but ultimately it is almost 100% positive that Will Smith will win an Oscar for his lead role in “King Richard.” It’s a deserving win, and not only that, but it is at least some recognition for a lengthy and admirable career thus far, as has been the case for some other actors that won awards after years of nominated performances. At any rate, you won’t see a lot of people argue that he’s not deserving.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
Olivia Colman “The Lost Daughter”
Penélope Cruz, “Parallel Mothers”
Nicole Kidman,“Being the Ricardos”
Kristen Stewart, “Spencer”
Predicted Winner: Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
Looking back at last year, I was definitely wrong in this category, not expecting Frances McDormand could pull off a win and a third Oscar for her role in “Nomadland.” But here, I’m hopeful that my pick of Jessica Chastain will win for her transformative role in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.” It’s unfortunately one of the nominated performances’ films that I have not yet seen, but all that acclaim behind her performance seems to be enough. There does seem to be some momentum behind Penelope Cruz as well, so at the end of the night I suppose we shall see.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Ciarán Hinds, “Belfast”
Troy Kotsur, “CODA”
Jesse Plemons, “The Power of the Dog”
J.K. Simmons, “Being the Ricardos”
Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog”
Predicted Winner: Troy Kotsur, “CODA”
This is one that appears to be just about a lock for Troy Kotsur for his performance in “CODA.” It’s an incredible sensitive and nuance performance by the actor, which manages to at times be funny, charming, and heartwarming. So it’s another well-deserved win for acting.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Jessie Buckley, “The Lost Daughter”
Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”
Judi Dench, “Belfast”
Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog”
Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard”
Predicted Winner: Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”
Another sure win for acting. Ariana DeBose is stellar in Stephen Spielberg‘s “West Side Story,” playing the friend of the main character. It’s a standout role in a pretty excellent movie all-around, which unfortunately isn’t likely to win more than for DeBose‘s performance. Still, it’s a good win.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
“Belfast,” written by Kenneth Branagh
“Don’t Look Up,” screenplay by Adam McKay; story by Adam McKay and David Sirota
“King Richard,” written by Zach Baylin
“Licorice Pizza,” written by Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Worst Person in the World,” written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier;
Predicted Winner: “Belfast,” written by Kenneth Branagh
This category looks to be more of a tossup between possibly 3-4 different films. “Belfast,” “Licorice Pizza,” and “The Worst Person in the World” could all realistically win, with an outside chance for “Don’t Look Up.” Still, I’m going with “Belfast” because it seems like the most accessible of the bunch, and the most “original” as well. I’ve missed this one in recent years, though, so I guess we’ll see what happens.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
“CODA,” screenplay by Siân Heder
“Drive My Car,” screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
“Dune,” screenplay by Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth
“The Lost Daughter,” written by Maggie Gyllenhaal
“The Power of the Dog,” written by Jane Campion
Predicted Winner: “CODA,” screenplay by Siân Heder
If things go the way that it seems to with “CODA” winning Best Picture, then I think it likely to win here as well. The story is adapted well for the screen, and the Academy often (but not always) picks the screenplay along with the Best Picture winner. There’s a chance that Jane Campion could win with “The Power of the Dog,” but I think “CODA” is a safer bet.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
“Encanto”
“Flee”
“Luca”
“The Mitchells vs. the Machines”
“Raya and the Last Dragon”
Predicted Winner: “Encanto”
Disney historically tends to dominate in this category. Case in point: 3/5 of the nominees this year are Disney properties. Of those, though, the catchy huge hit “Encanto” seems to have the most momentum behind it. It’s visually stimulating, has a great voice cast, and a strong message behind it. Oh, and the songs of course. I mean seriously, I still can’t get “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” out of my head.
Best International Feature Film
Nominees:
“Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom,” Bhutan
“Flee,” Denmark
“The Hand of God,” Italy
“Drive My Car,” Japan
“The Worst Person in the World,” Norway
Predicted Winner: “Drive My Car,” Japan
One of the standout films this year, “Drive My Car” has impressively become popular, even for a foreign film. And it managed to be nominated in more categories than just International Feature, something that thankfully appears to be more common in recent years (see: “Parasite). I don’t think it’ll win more than this category, though, but it’s definitely the most worthy of the films nominated. Shoutout to “The Worst Person in the World,” though, a wonderful film that everyone should watch ASAP.
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees:
“Ascension”
“Attica”
“Flee”
“Summer of Soul”
“Writing With Fire”
Predicted Winner: “Summer of Soul”
Another category where I admittedly don’t watch nearly as many as I should. Still, it’s hard to think that “Summer of Soul” will not win this award, as it has been cleaning up at nearly every other award show. Questlove‘s documentary of a lost concert is supposedly groundbreaking, and I promise promise I will watch soon.
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
“Dune”
“Nightmare Alley”
“The Power of the Dog”
“The Tragedy of Macbeth”
“West Side Story”
Predicted Winner: “Dune”
With its out-of-this-world visuals and stunning landscapes, “Dune” seems to be the safe choice here. And this is the first of likely many potential awards for the film. There are typically standout visual films that tend to win the technical awards at the Oscars each year, and this year, it’s for sure “Dune.” So expect this to come up a lot.
Best Film Editing
Nominees:
“Don’t Look Up”
“Dune”
“King Richard”
“The Power of the Dog”
“Tick, Tick … Boom!”
Predicted Winner: “Dune”
And here we go: another for “Dune.” This category doesn’t always go to a visual film like “Dune,” but it is an impressively edited film as well, especially during some of the larger setpieces. Nothing else here comes too close, though if I had my way, “The Power of the Dog” would win the award.
Best Production Design
Nominees:
“Dune”
“Nightmare Alley”
“The Power of the Dog”
“The Tragedy of Macbeth”
“West Side Story”
Predicted Winner: “Dune”
And here I go: repeating myself again. This would admittedly be a tough decision if I was the one voting, as everyone of these films has admirable production design behind it, from the minimalist sets of “The Tragedy of Macbeth” to the NYC recreations in “West Side Story” to Guillermo del Toro‘s fanciful sets in “Nightmare Alley.” Still, at the end of the day, it’s hard to argue withe futuristic production and background visuals in “Dune,” so I think it likely to take home yet another award.
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
✓“Cruella”
“Cyrano”
“Dune”
“Nightmare Alley”
“West Side Story”
Predicted Winner: “Cruella”
For this category, sometimes you have to go with the obvious: the films that are about fashion itself. That’s the case with “Cruella,” an origin story for the famous 101 Dalmatians villain. Emma Stone‘s delectable costumes alone in the film are worthy of an Oscar. So I think the Academy is likely to agree.
Best Original Score
Nominees:
“Don’t Look Up”
“Dune”
“Encanto”
“Parallel Mothers”
“The Power of the Dog”
Predicted Winner: “Dune”
Yup, “Dune” again. Hey, if I had my way I would definitely go with Jonny Greenwood‘s hypnotic score for “The Power of the Dog.” Alas, it is not up to me. And sometimes bigger is better when it comes to score. It is in the case of Hans Zimmer‘s explosive score for “Dune,” which should be enough to take home the award.
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Be Alive” “King Richard”
“Dos Oruguitas” “Encanto”
“Down to Joy” “Belfast”
“No Time to Die” “No Time to Die”
“Somehow You Do” “Four Good Days”
Predicted Winner: “No Time to Die” “No Time to Die”
Disney has dominated this category in some recent years as well, but I don’t think it likely that it will win here. Perhaps if “Bruno” was nominated, but “Dos Oruguitas” doesn’t have as much acclaim behind it. “No Time to Die” by superstar Billie Eilish instead seems to be the likely winner. It’s the perfect song for Daniel Craig‘s final outing as Bond, and it’s heard in the typical stunning intro to the film. So all of this makes it likely that Eilish and her brother Finneas will win the Oscar for the title song.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
“Dune”
“Free Guy”
“No Time to Die”
“Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”
“Spider-Man: No Way Home”
Predicted Winner: “Dune”
Should be a no-brainer here. The most visually stunning movie of 2022 which will likely win several additional awards is also the frontrunner for visual effects. Marvel films get nominated here a lot, but a film like “Dune” is what the Academy typically goes for.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Nominees:
“Coming 2 America”
“Cruella”
“Dune”
“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
“House of Gucci”
Predicted Winner: “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
Just as Jessica Chastain‘s transformative performance will likely win her the award, so too will the makeup behind that transformation. The Academy typically goes for roles like this, where the makeup and hairstyling is so prominent, so it’s likely that “Tammy Faye” will win the Oscar.
Best Sound
Nominees:
“Belfast”
“Dune”
“No Time to Die”
“The Power of the Dog”
“West Side Story”
Predicted Winner: “Dune”
I know I’m starting to sound like a broken record, but hey you can’t argue with common sense. “Dune” is not only a visual film, it’s a very sound-driven one as well. This category has also recently been melted down into one from Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing. As a result of that and just the sheer loudness of “Dune,” it’s enough to take home the win.
Best Live Action Short Film
Nominees:
“The Dress”
“The Long Goodbye”
“On My Mind”
“Please Hold”
“Ala Kachuu — Take and Run”
Predicted Winner: “The Long Goodbye”
The short categories are another that I admittedly don’t follow as closely. So what I’m going with here is mostly out of a general consensus. “The Long Goodbye” has one major thing going for it: Riz Ahmed, who has been acclaimed for the role. So for that alone, it seems likely that the film will win.
Best Animated Short Film
Nominees:
“Affairs of the Art”
“Bestia”
“Boxballet”
“Robin Robin”
“The Windshield Wiper”
Predicted Winner: “Robin Robin”
This one seems to have a lot of consensus behind it. It’s a stop motion animated short on Netflix that, according to reviews, is really cute and inspired. So that should be enough right there.
Best Documentary – Short Subject
Nominees:
“Audible”
“Lead Me Home”
“The Queen of Basketball”
“Three Songs for Benazir”
“When We Were Bullies”
Predicted Winner: “Audible”
If this is the year for the deaf community to get recognition in the arts, then “Audible” will be another to add to that list. There does seem to be a lot of momentum behind “The Queen of Basketball” as well, so at the end of the day I guess we’ll see!
Well that about concludes my predictions for this year’s Oscars. Tune in tonight (very shortly, that is), to see how I do. The show will be hosted by Regina Hall, Amy Schumer, and Wanda Sykes, so it should be a fun time. Enjoy!