So, ever since writing for Film Inquiry almost full-time, it seems I’ve neglected my own little WordPress blog. But, as I do every year, I’m still back for my annual Oscar predictions.

The Academy Awards are this Sunday, February 26, and I’ve been watching and keeping up with all of the other award ceremonies in order to predict what could potentially win. Remember, as in past years, these aren’t necessarily the awards that I would like to win, but the ones that will most likely win. If there’s one thing for certain, it’s that you’re going to get tired of hearing the words “La La Land.” So without further ado, let’s begin!

Best Picture

Nominees: “Arrival,” “Fences,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “Hell or High Water,” “Hidden Figures, ” “La La Land,” “Lion,” “Manchester by the Sea,” “Moonlight”

Predicted Winner: “La La Land”

More so than last year, when the winner could have been 1 of 3 movies, it’s almost a sure thing that “La La Land” will come home with the top prize. For awhile, I was juggling around the possibility that “Moonlight” could win; with its progressive themes and focus on communities who are little-reflected in modern films, it would truly be a landmark decision by the Academy.

Alas, “La La Land” is not only a movie about the movies, but specifically a throwback to classic musicals. There’s almost no doubt that it will come home with the top prize (plus, it has won the Golden Globe for Best Comedy/Musical, the Critic’s Choice Award, the BAFTA, the DGA, the PGA, etc. etc.)

Best Director

Nominees: Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival,” Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge,” Damien Chazelle, “La La Land,” Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea,” Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”

Predicted Winner: Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”

Better get used to this, as “La La Land” could potentially win upwards of 10 separate awards on Academy night. This category has, in the past few years, split a movie with the Best Picture award; for example, when Alejandro González Iñárritu won for “The Revenant” last year, yet “Spotlight” won Best Picture.

However, this year that is unlikely the case – though I’d love to see Barry Jenkins win this for “Moonlight,” he just doesn’t have the support behind him that Chazelle does. So, while it’s nice to see directors like Denis Villeneuve in here, and even Mel Gibson for “Hacksaw Ridge,” who, for the last ten years has been in director’s jail, this is really Chazelle’s to lose. Amazingly, at only 32 years old, he will be the youngest winner in Academy Award history.

Best Actor

Nominees: Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea,” Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge,” Ryan Gosling, “La La Land,” Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic,” Denzel Washington, “Fences”

Predicted Winner: Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”

Finally, an uncertain category. This award could feasibly go to three different people: Casey Affleck, Denzel Washington, or even Ryan Gosling. Casey Affleck for a long time seemed to be the top contender here, but his recent allegations of sexual assault might minimize his chances of winning if the Academy takes this into consideration. In that case Denzel, who surprisingly won the Screen Actor’s Guild instead of Affleck, could win instead, yet he also has 2 Oscars to his name, which could work against him.

Gosling, on the other hand, is more of an outside threat here, but given the Academy’s potential love for “La La Land,” I wouldn’t count him out. But ultimately, I think Casey still has the support behind him even given his questionable personal life, so I believe he will win the Oscar.

Best Actress

Nominees: Isabelle Huppert, “Elle,” Ruth Negga, “Loving,” Natalie Portman, “Jackie,” Emma Stone, “La La Land,” Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”

Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, “La La Land”

I have a few gripes with this category (why is Meryl Streep there and not Amy Adams for “Arrival”?!), but it also has some pleasant surprises, such as Ruth Negga for her endearingly nuanced performance in “Loving.”

As far as predictions go, it seemed that Natalie Portman was going to sweep the awards shows originally for “Jackie,” but instead that love has (almost) solely gone to Emma Stone. Isabelle Huppert is a slight threat, but I believe that Emma has the backing behind her to win.

This image released by A24 Films shows Alex Hibbert, left, and Mahershala Ali in a scene from the film, “Moonlight.” The film is a poetic coming-of-age tale told across three chapters about a young gay black kid growing up in a poor, drug-ridden neighborhood of Miami. (David Bornfriend/A24 via AP)

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight,” Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water,” Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea,” Dev Patel, “Lion,” Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals”

Predicted Winner: Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”

The best surprise in this category was seeing Michael Shannon nominated for “Nocturnal Animals,” as he was a true scene-stealer in that film. In addition, the category did not nominate Aaron Taylor-Johnson, who somehow won the Golden Globe for “Nocturnal Animals” in the same category.

As a result, I believe Mahershala Ali will deservedly win for “Moonlight.” As the father figure to the main character in that film, he created a strong presence despite his limited screen-time. In that case, this is one category where “Moonlight” is almost a sure thing.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Viola Davis, “Fences,” Naomie Harris, “Moonlight,” Nicole Kidman, “Lion,” Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures,” Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”

Predicted Winner: Viola Davis, “Fences”

I’ll say the one thing that I am 100% sure of on Academy night: Viola Davis will win for “Fences.” Playing the lead role in that film, it still seems sort of a cheat to nominate yourself for a supporting category, much like Rooney Mara did last year for “Carol.” Yet, in this case, it is likely to propel Viola to a win. I mean, she should have won for “The Help” back in 2012 anyway.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Taylor Sheridan, “Hell or High Water,” Damien Chazelle, “La La Land,” Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Lobster,” Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea,” Mike Mills, “20th Century Women”

Predicted Winner: Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”

This category is yet another uncertainty, due to the fact that, once again, “La La Land” could capture the entirety of the night. But ultimately, I don’t believe that it is the screenplay for “La La Land” that people most celebrate, and in addition, this could be a chance to give at least one award to Kenneth Lonergan for “Manchester,” a wonderfully written film that somehow seamlessly blends both comedy and tragedy. So crossing my fingers for this one (although Yorgos Lanthimos winning for “The Lobster” would be a delightful surprise).

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Eric Heisserer, “Arrival,” August Wilson, “Fences,” Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi, “Hidden Figures,” Luke Davies, “Lion,” Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”

Predicted Winner: Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”

Much like the last category for Lonergan, this category could be a chance to award Barry Jenkins for “Moonlight.” This is more of a sure thing, though, mainly because “La La Land” is not up against them here. Jenkins deserves at least something for his film that was 8 years in the making, so please Academy award him justly!

Best Animated Feature

Nominees: “Kubo and the Two Strings,” “Moana,” “My Life as a Zucchini,” “The Red Turtle,” “Zootopia”

Predicted Winner: “Zootopia”

It’s beginning to seem nearly impossible to beat Disney in this category, as they have won the last four years in a row, whether through their own studio or through Pixar. Here, yet again, it seems unlikely that they won’t win for “Zootopia.” They have already won the Annie Award, the Golden Globe, the Critic’s Choice Award, the PGA for Animated, etc; it’ll be hard to stop that momentum.

Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees: “Land of Mine,” “A Man Called Ove,” “The Salesman,” “Tanna,” “Toni Erdmann”

Predicted Winner: “Toni Erdmann”

This is a category that could conceivably go to either “Toni Erdmann,” a highlight acclaimed German comedy-drama, or “The Salesman,” a politically-driven Iranian film. If the Academy is hoping to make a political statement, they could go with “The Salesman,” but “Toni Erdmann” I believe just has too much admiration to be ignored. They are already planning an American remake with Jack Nicholson, after all.

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees: “Fire at Sea,” “I Am Not Your Negro,” “Life, Animated, ” “O.J.: Made in America,” “13th”

Predicted Winner: “O.J.: Made in America”

For a documentary a full 7 hours long, that not only has won awards as a TV series but already as a film documentary, I don’t believe “O.J.: Made in America” will be beat at the Academy Awards. While I’d love to see “13th” win, and have heard good things about “I Am Not Your Negro,” I believe it will be hard to beat The Juice.

Best Cinematography

Nominees: Bradford Young, “Arrival,” Linus Sandgren, “La La Land,” Greg Fraser, “Lion,” James Laxton, “Moonlight,” Rodrigo Prieto, “Silience”

Predicted Winner: Linus Sandgren, “La La Land”

This is the first of many technical categories to go to “La La Land,” the lavishly shot and colorfully presented musical. This is a tough category to rank if I had to choose myself, and while I’d love to see Martin Scorsese’s “Silence” awarded for the one category in which it is eligible, this is “La La Land” through and through.

Best Film Editing

Nominees: “Arrival,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “Hell or High Water,” “La La Land,”  “Moonlight”

Predicted Winner: “La La Land”

I know, I’m getting bored of hearing the name as well. Yet, Tom Cross, who also won an Oscar back in 2015 for “Whiplash,” the other film for which he was the editor alongside Damien Chazelle, seems to be a sure thing here. While that film was arguably better spliced together, and “La La Land” wouldn’t be my first choice here, it is not my decision to make.

Best Production Design

Nominees: “Arrival,” “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them,” “Hail, Caesar!,” “La La Land,” “Passengers”

Predicted Winner: “La La Land”

It’s cool to see “Hail, Caesar!” in this category, the other film that was a callback to classic Hollywood, but who are we kidding, nobody is beating “La La Land.” The observatory scene and the entire end sequence are what’ll do it for the Academy.

Best Costume Design

Nominees: Joanna Johnston, “Allied,” Colleen Atwood,” “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them,” Consolata Boyle, “Florence Foster Jenkins,” Madeline Fontaine, “Jackie,” Mary Zophres, “La La Land”

Predicted Winner: Mary Zophres, “La La Land”

For a time, I was debating “Jackie” for this category; I mean, come on, “La La Land” can’t win everything! Also, “Jackie” was an alluring recreation of the fashion styles of the 1960s. “La La Land,” though, has outfits designed after those of classic musicals, such as Emma Stone’s yellow dress, which is straight out of the film “The Umbrellas of Cherbourg.” So, it’ll be hard to beat that.

Best Original Score

Nominees: Mica Levi, “Jackie,” Justin Hurwitz, “La La Land,” Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka, “Lion,” Nicholas Britell, “Moonlight,” Thomas Newman, “Passengers”

Predicted Winner: Justin Hurwitz, “La La Land”

Since “Arrival” was omitted from this category (!!!!), I’d love to see either “Moonlight” or “Jackie” get awarded, since both have incredible soundtracks. But “La La Land” is a musical, so that spells a win here.

Best Original Song

Nominees: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream” from “La La Land,” “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from “Trolls,” “City of Stars” from “La La Land,” “The Empty Chair” from “Jim: The James Foley Story,” “How Far I’ll Go” from “Moana”

Predicted Winner: “City of Stars” from “La La Land”

“La La Land” has two songs in this category, so as such, I think it’ll likely go to one of them. Specifically, it’ll go to the more popular song from the film, which itself is often used in its promotions: “City of Stars.” It is a pretty catchy song, and this’ll be the second win for Justin Hurwitz of the night.

Best Visual Effects

Nominees: “Deepwater Horizon,” “Doctor Strange,” “The Jungle Book,”‘ “Kubo and the Two Strings,” “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”

Predicted Winner:  “The Jungle Book”

Amazingly, this is the only category in which the highly acclaimed “The Jungle Book” was nominated. Yet I think it’s this film’s category to lose. Last year, surprisingly, the low-key artificial intelligence film “Ex Machina” took home this award as opposed to the more favored “Star Wars,” so perhaps it’ll be the same this year. Though this time, it’s less explosions, more CGI animals as opposed to CGI robots.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Nominees: “A Man Called Ove,” “Star Trek Beyond, “The Revenant”

Predicted Winner: “Star Trek Beyond”

Star Trek has always been known for its stylish hairdos for its alien characters, and “Star Trek Beyond” is no exception. The film has already won at the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild, and, really, should win for the look of Jaylah alone.

Best Sound Mixing

Nominees: “Arrival,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “La La Land,” “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story,” “13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi”

Predicted Winner: “La La Land”

This is a category that usually goes to a film with some kind of musical element, such as “Whiplash” in 2015, or otherwise goes to the same film as the Sound Editing category, such as last year when “Mad Max: Fury Road” won both. This year, though, you can be sure it’ll go to the musical “La La Land.”

Best Sound Editing

Nominees: “Arrival,” “Deepwater Horizon,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “La La Land,” “Sully”

Predicted Winner: “Hacksaw Ridge”

Best Sound Editing, on the other hand, is almost always awarded to the loudest and most action-filled film of the year. In that case, it has to be “Hacksaw Ridge,” with few films from last year that compare to the sheer thunderous noise of Mel Gibson’s wartime drama.

Best Live Action Short Film

Nominees: “Ennemis Intérieurs,” “La Femme et le TGV,” “Silent Nights,” “Sing,” “Timecode”

Predicted Winner: “Ennemis Intérieurs”

I have not yet had the time to watch these live action shorts, so I am really going with this choice based on buzz alone. “Ennemis Intérieurs” is the one I see mentioned in most places, so that’s my hopeful pick.

Best Animated Short Film

Nominees: “Blind Vayasha,” “Borrowed Time,” “Pear Cider and Cigarettes,” “Pearl,” “Piper”

Predicted Winner: “Piper”

Now here is one that I have seen. Playing in front of “Finding Dory,” this is one of their more memorable shorts, showing a little bird trying to venture out of his nest to catch mussels. This is Pixar at its most heartwarming, and I think the Academy will agree.

Best Documentary – Short Subject

Nominees: “Extremis,” “4.1 Miles,” “Joe’s Violin,” “Watani: My Homeland,” “The White Helmets”

Predicted Winner: “Joe’s Violin”

There seems to be some uncertainty about this category, given that “4.1 Miles,” “White Helmets,” and “Watani: My Homeland” are all about the Syrian crisis, and all could potentially win. Yet, “Joe’s Violin” seems to be a favorite amongst the non-Syrian documentaries, so it’s my prediction here.

So that sums up this year’s Academy Award predictions. Be sure to tune in on Sunday, February 26 at 7:00pm EST. Jimmy Kimmel is hosting, so it should be a fun time!

What are your predictions for the 89th Academy Awards?